Time Series Fundamentals: Basic Terms with Simple Explanation
Time Series Fundamentals: Introduction Imagine you're looking at how your favorite coffee shop's sales change over time. This is a time series! Let's break down the key concepts in simple terms. Core Components: The Building Blocks 1. Trend 📈 The general direction your data moves over time. Like: A child's height growing over years (upward trend) Ice cream sales over a decade (might show an upward trend) Number of landline phones over recent years (downward trend) Real-world example : Monthly sales at a growing business Jan: $1000 Feb: $1100 Mar: $1250 Apr: $1400 2. Seasonality 🌞❄️ Regular patterns that repeat over fixed periods. Like: Ice cream sales peak in summer, drop in winter Coffee shop sales higher on weekdays, lower on weekends Retail sales spike during holidays Real-world example : Monthly ice cream sales Summer: 1000 units Fall: 500 units Winter: 200 units Spring: 600 units (Pattern repeats next year) 3. Cyclical Patterns 🔄 Up an...